The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting have limited impact on precious metals, with long and short positions vying for the 2000 mark

Spot gold surged, rising from below $1980 per ounce to near the key resistance level of $2000 per ounce. Even if the stock price falls and the US dollar stabilizes, this upward trend still exists.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday as US treasury bond bond yields remained stable. After reaching $2007 per ounce, the price of gold fell back to around $2000 per ounce. The overall trend still leans towards an upward trend, supported by the expectation that the Federal Reserve will no longer raise interest rates, which puts pressure on the US dollar and is beneficial for precious metals denominated in US dollars. Spot gold closed at $1998.29 per ounce on Tuesday, up 1.04%.

The trend of precious metals is taking place against the backdrop of global economic sentiment being influenced by speculation of a weak US dollar and a more moderate policy stance from the Federal Reserve. These expectations have driven the development of the gold market on the New York Mercantile Exchange. What further affects the market dynamics is the lower than expected US bond yield, which is currently lower than the federal funds rate. This difference has sparked discussions about the possibility of easing monetary policy in the near future.

However, Richmond Fed Chairman Thomas Balkin also issued a warning not to underestimate the sustainability of inflation, which may require sustained high interest rates.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve released meeting minutes, but the impact on gold prices was not significant. The minutes of the meeting indicate that the opinions of all participants are almost the same. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting show that all participants unanimously agree that policy decisions at each meeting will continue to be based on a "synthesis of all information." All Federal Reserve members believe that interest rates will remain restrictive for a period of time and agree to "act with caution" on interest rate issues.

Economists at Commerzbank in Germany say that the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are unlikely to have any significant impact on gold, Now, concerns about the Middle East conflict have significantly weakened, and the outlook for US interest rates has regained the upper hand of gold. Against this backdrop, the latest minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Tuesday may be of interest. For many members of the committee, further rate hikes have not been ruled out, and this fact may be reflected in the meeting minutes again. However, since early November Since the meeting, there have been increasing signs that the Federal Reserve may have reached its peak interest rate. After all, in addition to weak economic indicators, the decline in inflation in October also exceeded expectations. Therefore, any negative impact of meeting minutes on prices should be limited

Since the Israeli Palestinian conflict, precious metal prices have remained resilient. Economists at Daoming Securities suggest that macro headwinds may increasingly be unfavorable for gold bears, "It has been over a month since the Middle East War triggered a large-scale bear squeeze on the precious metals market. The crude oil market has melted, eliminating the risk premium associated with war, but precious metal prices remain resilient (this is a bear market trap!)" Ignoring the traditional strategy of reducing risk premium. Finally, it's time to come to the dark side. We now see the risk of buying out quickly turning into a sell-off activity. However, in the long run, macro headwinds may increasingly have an impact on gold's free bears, but there may also be some tactical downturns

Due to growing concerns about economic slowdown and possible recession, the yield of the benchmark 10-year US treasury bond bond fell 1.17 basis points to 4.4081%, trading between 4.4412% and 4.3810% in the intraday trading. After the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the yield of the benchmark 10-year US treasury bond fell to a daily high. The two-year US Treasury yield fell 3.00 basis points to 4.8808%, with intraday trading in the 4.9172% -4.8574% range. After the meeting minutes were released, it rebounded to above 4.9% for the first time. Limiting the upward potential of the US dollar is beneficial for the upward potential of gold prices.

After the Federal Reserve released its meeting minutes, CME's "Federal Reserve Watch" data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the 5.25% -5.50% range in December was 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike was 5.2%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by February next year is 94.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve is 5.2%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by March next year is 28.4%, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 67.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate hike is 3.6%.